Shelley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS65 KPIH 170902
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
302 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low pressure system arrives today bringing much colder weather with
  light snow possible even down to valley floors.

- Gusty north winds this afternoon and tonight across upper
  Snake Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Low pressure system will sag south into eastern Idaho today. For our
area, looks like winds are the main impact. We are seeing winds
pick up in the Burley area this morning, more in line with the
NBM which supports advisory level winds. Decided to issue a wind
advisory for this area until mid afternoon, when the NBM shows
winds weakening below advisory levels. Meanwhile, northerly
winds will strengthen throughout the day across the upper Snake
Plain. Latest models are showing that we may see the gusts
weaken during the evening, but the sustained winds may not
weaken until the overnight hours. Combined with the fact that
these are northerly winds, a direction we don`t typically see
for strong winds, the potential impacts are greater. Therefore
will expand the wind advisory to include the Idaho Falls/Rexburg
zone and expand the advisory in time to run until 09z tonight.

Showers are expected today across the region, likely turning from
rain across south Idaho over to snow during the morning. Ground
temps being warm, not expecting much accumulation in the lower
elevations. The most impressive accumulations could be across
southeast Idaho from Soda to Montpelier where the NBM is showing 2
to 4 inches of snow likely. The models have been developing a band
of wrap around snow late Thursday Night into Friday morning, passing
the band through that region. This band of snow is certainly
something to keep an eye on and if confidence and amounts continues
to increase, we may end up issuing winter weather advisories for
this. Elsewhere, the amounts from this storm just look too light for
advisories, maybe near the pass level with Montana, perhaps around
the higher peaks in the hills south of Burley, or even along the
spine of the Idaho Wasatch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Saturday still looks dry until we get toward late
afternoon and evening. Beyond that we will see unsettled weather
lasting throughout next week.  Each wave of moisture coming through
doesn`t look very impressive at the moment. The pattern will remain
on the warmer side of the thermometer with daily highs in the 50s
and eventually 60s. We will likely see winds picking up briefing
with each passing storm system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Shower coverage will continue to increase as low
pressure drops south across the state. As this happens, we will see
winds trending in all areas to northerly. The strongest winds will
occur this afternoon through early Friday morning. Peaks gusts for
PIH and IDA will be 25-35kts. With this pattern, we SHOULD NOT see
the usual wind shift this afternoon at SUN...meaning winds should
maintain the northerly/downvalley wind pattern. We will maintain a
mix of VCSH and showers, dependent on confidence and coverage at any
given TAF site. With colder temperatures filtering in, we will
eventually a mix or all snow for TAF sites.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 3 AM MDT Friday for IDZ052-
053-067-068.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ055>057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes